“Italian cities to ban cars* by 2030”

This provocative statement opens Citytech, the event gathering this week in Milan more than 800 international experts, key players and top brands showcasing some of the most relevant innovations in mobility aiming to shape tomorrow’s cities. It’s time to act and take strong decisions to lead the transition towards a more sustainable mobility system and urban environment.

citytech_logoPublic policies made a strong acceleration in the last few weeks. UK and France declared to ban ICE (petrol and diesel) cars from new sales by 2040, Norway, counting 40% new registrations in August as electric cars, sets this goal in 2024 as Netherlands did. Most of all China has declared to be working on the same regulation, just defining the right timeframe. (we remind that China equals to 28 millions units market). That’s a long way if we consider that we have 695.000 EV globally in 2016 in 84 million cars market.

If Government sets regulations, industry’s role targets technologies and manufacturing accordingly. After Volvo recently announced to produce only electric or hybrid cars in 2019, JLR just followed with a target date of 2020 and media are full jaguar_ipaceof releases from IAA show in Frankfurt from BMW, Daimler and VW on huge investments to electrified the whole production in the near future.

We finally know that revolution today.. needs money more than arms, so what’s the opinion from financial community about E-mobility? JpMorgan just declared that electric technology will disrupt the market with many losers, all those ones that will not drive the change. (CNBC credit video) They forecast 35% market share for EV in 2025, scaling to 48% by 2030. More conservative position from MorganStanley’s comparing multiple scenarios expects 16% penetration for EV (fully electric) in 2030 that can reach up to 60% by 2040. morganstanleyMeantime Dutch bank ING identifies the battery costs reduction and public incentives as the main opportunities to drive production fully electric in 2035.

Market is full of researches we don’t want to get lost in, the fundamental is that globalBMWIvision political, economic and financial community has complete knowledge about this changing. Now it’s up to management class (from politics, to industries and consumers, nationally and locally) to decide whether they want to lead the changes or get disrupted. Italy is far behind this trend as proven by the insignificant market share of Ev (0,03%) or the absence of commitment and specific policies, any autonomous driving initiative elsewhere in the country even if there are existing competences and technologies not only linked to the “old” motor industry. We don’t need discussions but facts, projects, trials, and investments. That will bring the country industry back to a primary role in the future of automotive…(oh no sorry I’am wrong, …in the future  of mobility).

*..combustion cars

Carlo Iacovini                                                                                                                 Marketing Director, Local Motors,                                                                                   Board Member, Clickutility on Earth

Advertisements

Mobilità a guida autonoma: un’industria in movimento

Il processo di cambiamento in atto nel settore dell’automotive è così radicale che non tutti i grandi gruppi ne hanno piena consapevolezza. Da un lato nuovi player spingono per introdurre l’innovazione, cercando di dimostrare l’economicità e la profittabilità delle tecnologie, dall’altro anche i brand più tradizionalisti hanno avviato fasi di scouting tecnologico e indagini conoscitive. Tesla è sempre in prima linea tra i nuovi brand sulla scia dei successi di vendita della Model S/X e in preparazione dell’arrivo della Model3, primo modello più economico. L’azienda è al centro anche di speculazioni considerando che ha appena raccolto 1miliardo di $ e il gigante tecnologico Tencent ha rilevato il 5% del capitale di Tesla per 2,8mld di$. Un dinamismo di mercato che alimenta congetture sul fabbisogno di cassa dell’azienda in previsione del lancio di produzione della nuova media e la capacità di soddisfare la domanda di acquisto degli oltre 400.000 clienti che l’avevano prenotata. Il rischio è infatti di trovarsi a “metà del guado” con cassa limitata.. sarebbe la posizione più rischiosa per un’acquisizione (favorevole.. od ostile). A parte Tesla l’industria dei nuovi brand della Silicon Valley interamente votati a rivoluzionare la mobilità con veicoli connessi, autonomi e condivisi, fa i conti con la dura realtà. Faraday Future la più chiacchierata azienda americana (con capitali asiatici) è in grande difficoltà e dopo un lancio del loro primo veicolo (la FF91) in grande stile a Gennaio scorso a Las Vegas ha visto una drastica riduzione degli investimenti sulla fabbrica del Nevada (avviata per una piccola porzione rispetto ai piani generali), al quartier generale in California (venduto l’intero lotto di terra dove doveva sorgere una cittadella dell’innovazione), la dipartita di diversi executive da poco assunti (e l’ingresso di altri, come il nuovo CFO) e nessuna certezza sui tempi di produzione e commercializzazione del veicolo (che per la cronaca ha un prezzo stimato in quasi 170mila $). Next EV, altra multinazionale di pochi anni, dopo aver anticipato una vettura supersportiva da corsa con record sul giro realizzato al Nürburgring ha presentato EVE, il concetto per la nuova mobilità. Un veicolo che rappresenta un’emanazione diretta del proprio spazio di vita, come fosse un salotto o un ambiente dove le 4 ruote sono una componente quasi secondaria. Suggestioni.. certo, ma nemmeno troppo lontane nel tempo visto che anche Volkswagen a Ginevra ha presentato Sedric, un veicolo multifunzionale basato sulle stesse premesse concettuali. E per capire quanto le aziende guardino lontano basti pensare ad Airbus che insieme a Italdesign ha portato un prototipo di auto volante proprio nel salone svizzero…. leggi oltre

Articolo completo pubblicato su “Qualenergia” Aprile-Maggio 2017

 

What to expect from #CES2017 and mobility

#CES2017 is the first show to look at to understand trends and new technologies. It’s true that Automotive uses the show to unveil prototypes and concepts often far away to market creating a sort of gap between future and reality. Referring to mobility industry the show has been a key place to talk about autonomous driving, connected cars and electric vehicles in recent years. This opening editions is showing both concrete products and services. The GONV summit gathered public institutions (mayor of Las Vegas,

localmotors_mayor
Mayor of Las Vegas and LocalMotors CEO present OLLI self driving vehicle – credits: LocalMotors

State Governor) and private industries executives  (LocalMotors, Lyft, Ehang, Hyperloop and many more)  talking about new business cases and autonomous driving deployment.

The industry is clearly showing that this technology is coming to reality and to prove so a series of test drive locations have been set up for visitors. “Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is expected to put forth a highly autonomous driving demonstration in collaboration with its automobility partners. Microsoft is currently working on an autonomous driving project in partnership with NXP Semiconductors, IAV, Esri, Swiss Re, and Cubic Telecom” (cit). Similar approach comes from French industry representatives (Valeo,Keolys), as other relevant players like Nvidia (special Key note presentation), HERE (that just announced INTEL as new investor for the company) that will have big inside/outside locations to engage visitors to. High expectations comes from FCA that finally unveiled PORTAL the first fully electric fcaportalcar for millennians.. designed by millenians based on a new concept of family vehicle. It’s a prototype.. but seems that a market ready version will be ready in one year.

Even more rumours lead the Faraday Future unveiling. The official presentation of the first car comes after weeks of skeptics and executive leaving news providing the idea of a struggling company.. The level of presentation they just had proved that the company has strong commitment and even if financial problems are part of the challenge.. it doesn’t seem to be a close to end project. The car is quite innovative and sure will be one of the most interesting products to look after. img_8738

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ces2017 will open in the next days.. a lot to see and more to come, even from non exhibitors.. here comes that you can meet a #LucidMotors prototype next to parking spot for private presentation. Stay tuned.

img_8666

Electric Vehicles industry shouldn’t fear (too much) Trump Presidency: that’s why

Few hours after Trump’s elections the global “clean energy” business community started debating about potential debacle coming from a step back in green policies, some how announced by new US Government.

autoallianceAutomakers industry made the first step writing an official letter (see letter from AutomotiveNews ) to the “Transition team” asking to review and weak requirements for fuel consumption that is set to a fleet average of more than 50 MPG by 2025, declaring that “The combination of low gas prices and the existing fuel efficiency gains from the early years of the program is undercutting consumer willingness to buy the vehicles with more expensive alternative powertrains that are necessary for the sector to comply with the more stringent standards in out-years”, also arguing about single state regulations unbalancing consumers acceptance about alternative fuel specially considering California is at the forefront of this approach and other States are following. It’s good to remember that EV industry in California (and many more States) has 7.500$ purchase Tax credit (for the first 200.000 vehicles sold from each car manufacturer) and companies like Tesla still has a big revenue stream from selling EV tax credits certificates to other automakers.

More in general green policies seems to be in danger if we consider that President Trump denies global warming and seems positive towards oil and coal industries and believes louisiana-mineral-rights-oil-gas-royaty-buyers-248x182that strict ecological regulations can slow economic growth… even if it’s not true according to recent statements.

It’s not clear whether the US government will erase Paris Cop21 agreement but there are few considerations about EV industry (and new mobility) to outline:

  • Electric vehicles and fuel economy regulations are necessary not only for environmental reasons: they are crucial to hold oil demand (and foreign oil import expenses). We can expect new administrations to keep these measures as today because they prove to reduce oil consumption.
  • New Government seems more interested in financing big infrastructures (roads, bridges, hopefully some public transport network too..) furthermore engaging car manufactures in creating new jobs and keep productions in US instead of foreign factories.. (Doesn’t matter if cars are internal combustion, electric or autonomous..). I guess State Governors will still deal and support new EV brands like FaradayFuture, IMG_6115NextEv, LEECO, creating thousands of new jobs in Nevada, California and more.
  • Most of all it is well known that Customers have the real power and even Trumps election confirms these statements if we bring this statement to politics. Well, consumers today more than in the past like the coming to market innovation in EV industry. After Tesla, all big automakers have highly committed plans to introduce new products and even new brands. This trend can’t be stopped by a public administration.. Maybe the Government can slow it down instead of accelerating but at the end the market goes there.
  • Considering that China and Europe will keep going in this directions US could be in disadvantage situation in the next decade if keep away from this trend.
  • A final political consideration comes from demographics distributions votes: Young people voted mainly for Hillary, following the most disruptive trends in EV, new mobility and innovation. Mr. Trump declares himself to be  President of all Americans and those votes could be very helpful in the midterm election in 4 years time.. so it wouldn’t be so difficult to approach this electorate keeping the growing new and sharing mobility industry alive.

We’ll see in coming months real strategies and first nominations in crucial roles to learn more about what to expect on EV market. Stay tunes.

 @CarloIacovini

Behind Tesla Master Plan 2

Master Plan 2 description brings Tesla(Motors) in the next decade of investments and business models. It is interesting to look at what’s behind this announcement (…maybe)

Few months ago the Model 3 presentation astonished the world of passionates and customers with more than 400.000 reservations in few weeks. The presentation came after weeks of rumors about the suspected Model 3 delay… even if clients will get their cars not earlier than late 2017. I was wondering on how Tesla would have kept the attention to their business (and the stock price) for such a long time.

The masterplan 2 is the next step, only few days before the opening of the Gigafactory in Nevada, pushing the boarder much further than followers would expected. The plan covers new vehicles (Semitruck, transit, pickup) Solarcity (Tesla is buying the “sister” company) Sharing mobility, autonomous vehicle, and new manufacturing technology.. basically there is everything on the news in the energy, mobility&automotive industry in the world so far.

It is difficult not appreciating the plan because you can’t miss any innovation you are interested in. I am among the Tesla followers and I see the strategy behind as as a clever lesson. The masterplan is presented through a simple post (I guess there will be some Investor relations executives working on numbers too), anticipated by a series of signals (website domain change in tesla.com, mission moved from “transportation” to “energy”) and come after the fatality of the Autopilot that might have been accelerating the schedule of this presentation, linking the whole to a relevant financial decision (Solarcity investment to be approved by assembly).

model3

@Elonmusk made us used to fast communications keeping expectations increasing. But this time the boarders are much higher than before and we are not talking on building cars only… (even that would be enough to have some concerns about the plan) but creating a global company dealing with different industries connected by the great vision of its founder.

I am willing to see  how numbers, investments, business cases will be put together.  Surely there’s material for many future presentations.

Stay tuned!

Energica comes to market featuring high tech

A Brand Storytelling to launch the new Electric Sport Motorcycle made in Modena

Energica #cal1tour proved long trips are possible with EV motorcycle based on DC fast charge technology.

Galleria Energica opens this week in San Francisco. Meet in 53 Page street from July 7th.

Electric vehicles technology and sharing connected mobility will shape the future of automobile industry. I wrote about recent industry changes in few recent posts, but when it comes to real projects things are quite different.

CLIQ3936I recently had the chance to set launching plan for the superior Energica Motor Company second model EVA in USA. Products are well recognized and named by media as the “Tesla of 2 wheels” because bring similar value proposition to customers: performance, exclusivity, luxury, technology and more.

But experts know that Motorcycle industry is usually roughly 8/10 years later than automotive.. so you can figure out the level of concerns about sport 2wheels EV so far. On the other hand the automotive industry success in electric vehicle is a great result to leverage and speed up the introduction to market.

EVA&EGO have many special features but charging time remains the biggest problem consumers face when they consider an EV, especially if it has 2 wheels passion based.

Best way to make consumers aware about riding experience with new technology products is to prove it. Energica is the only bike with DC 20kw fast charge technology installed, the same of automotive industry. California is the crave of EV and has some of the stunning landscapes for riding motorcycle. So the #Cal1tour went live: from Los Angeles to San Francisco, 350 miles riding in one day at 60mph average, 9 fast charging stops of 23 minutes average to charge up to 95% of the battery. A long trip quite common if you have a Tesla or a Leaf… but not usual with an Electric motorcycle.

A crew followed the trip and brand ambassador told his trip in few videos. Enjoy the view, a branding&marketing story split in 3 parts:

To speed up sales strategy Energica opens its first Galleria in San Francisco where customers have the chance to feel the brand experience and see the products.

More to come… Stay tuned

Auto elettriche: ancora molti dubbi?

La lezione di Tesla, i numeri della Cina, mentre il mercato europeo rincorre.

Qualche indizio fa una prova.. ma se guardiamo le notizie degli ultimi giorni sulla mobilità model3elettrica, stiamo andando verso una possibile certezza (forse), sarà il tempo a confermarlo.

Premesso che sono un ottimista (ma oggettivo) analista della situazione, leggo molteplici annunci che hanno diversi punti in comune. In Cina la BYD ha previsto di triplicare le vendite di auto elettriche nel 2016. Per i meno informati, la BYD è l’azienda che in assoluto vende più veicoli a zero emissioni al mondo, 58.000 nel 2015 (su 331.000 veicoli complessivi), che diventeranno 150.000 entro i prossimi 9 mesi. Penso già ai commenti di amici giornalisti, ortodossi dell’auto: “numeri irrisori rispetto al mercato tradizionale.”. Vero.. ma ne riparliamo ancora tra qualche anno. 

BYD-Tang
Courtesy:Evobsession.com

Certo.. ma la Cina è un mercato molto diverso quindi andiamo pure alla “regina” dei giorni scorsi: In una presentazione con tutti i migliori elementi degni di una lezione pratica di public speaking emozionale, Elon Musk ha finalmente presentato la tanto attesa Model3

20 minuti partendo dalla grande visione di voler cambiare il mondo trasformando i trasporti in versione ecologica, il “patto” con i clienti che fino a oggi hanno aiutato Tesla comprando i costosi veicoli che hanno permesso di raggiungere questo grande risultato: poter produrre e consegnare tra circa 18 mesi (forse) il nuovo modello. Non c’è dubbio che Elon Musk sia uno stratega del business e della comunicazione. Con una presentazione ufficiale dove ha chiamato a raccolta partners, clienti, affezionati ed entusiasti, è riuscito a spazzare vie mesi di polemiche che solo poche settimane fa davano Tesla in grande crisi di liquidità, incapace di mantenere le promesse, quando addirittura si vociferava che nella fatidica data del 31 marzo della Model 3 ci sarebbero stati dei disegni o mockup. Invece non solo la vettura era reale, ma già il giorno dopo è stata casualmente vista in giro per Los Angeles per delle riprese in strada.   E se non bastasse in pochi giorni sono arrivati 275.000 ordini per la nuova vettura, che con deposito cauzionale di 1000$.. vuol dire quasi 300Milioni di cassa. Anche se la vettura presentata fosse stata solo un prototipo unico dal costo di svariati milioni.. la mossa strategica sarebbe comunque da manuale.  Ma se Tesla ci ha abituati a rilanciare ogni volta che entrava in difficoltà ci auguriamo che ora si portino avanti perché sostenere questa aspettativa per un anno e mezzo non sarà semplice. Specie se consideriamo che che altri competitor non stanno alla finestra.  GM ha già la nuova Bolt nelle linee di montaggio e sarà sul mercato in boltpochi mesi. La sfida è sempre più aperta. L’industria europea per ora arranca, un po’ in ritardo. Le grandi marche affilano le armi e passano dalla fase dei prototipi alla produzione di alcuni modelli costosi (gruppo VW/Porsche/Audi) comunque previsti nei prossimi anni, BMW consolida il brand “ì” con ampliamenti di gamma, Nissan inizia a raccogliere i frutti dei milioni di Euro investiti negli anni passati con un ruolo di leadership, mentre Renault sembra più ferma sulle scelte degli anni passati. Insomma manca ancora una “Tesla” europea, ma forse non potremo mai avere quel tipo di industria, con quello stile e quel modus operandi..  perchè, appunto, siamo Europei. Forse un bene, forse no..  lo scopriremo in pochi anni.