3 days showing self-driving shuttles capabilities brought autonomous driving to next level of experience.
Some experiences are worth sharing and there is no better way to show a self-driving vehicle than riding in real everyday scenarios. Olli (#meetOlli), an autonomous shuttle performed 3 days of rides for more than 300 guests from all over the world to prove its new capabilities. Thanks to the RoboticResearch partnership with LocalMotors a new software platform and sensor sets have been designed and integrated into Olli.
The experience brought passengers on a ride smoothly, reaching up to 19 Mph, crossing pedestrians and cyclists intersections, with vehicle overtaking and signal recognition. But dynamic obstacles avoidance has been one of the most interesting tests. Every group was asked to move barriers located in the path of the vehicle and based on the software OLLI changed its trajectory each time to determine the safest possible route to drive forward as published in official Local Motors social media feed
The event gathered also a number of partners in fleet management , engineering services, insurance, HMI experience, mapping, operators and financing. It is clearly an entire ecosystem built to support self driving vehicles coming to market and providing all the necessary supporting tools to manage barriers to introduce this new technology.
Autonomous driving is the forefront of mobility and an entire industry will be shaped in the future according to new services, business models and players.
Next step is to bring confidence to the public around autonomous vehicles, deploying vehicles and proving how safe this technology can be. It’s a long way to go to reach fully autonomy but the journey will definitely be exciting. See you on the roads this summer!
Managing fleet of autonomous vehicles offers the unique opportunity to use a series of assets to increase the value of the business and develop multiple collateral business cases linked with the operations.
Each asset can be owned/acquired/leased/ to run the business case and create more revenues streams
Storage and parking. Having access to storage hubs and parking infrastructures will be a key factors when we’ll have thousands of vehicles running.
Garages for car services. Traditional car dealers and services will shift their core business from privates or direct customers to fleet and an efficient and fast organisation will optimise the operations
Charging hubs (Renewable powered, smart grid, vehicle2grid applications). Grid balance in cities will be an issue and those players with direct access to infrastructures will be facilitated. Energy will be the new “oil” and its availability can be improved thanks to renewable power.
Among world top ten brands as per capitalisation (Amazon, Apple, Google,) and in mobility also (Uber) there are companies owning huge amount of data. Big data will be a mainstream revenue stream for those able to monetise and create value from that. Transport and mobility provide a relevant amount, coming from the following areas:
Mobility patterns (Matrix o/d)
Mapping data (for autonomous driving software applications)
Driving data (travel behaviour, drivers behaviour in different environment, incentives for drivers, privacy policies)
Artificial intelligence for mobility and user experience
Cars are not only the main asset for running the operations as there are multiple options to get value from the vehicle:
Financial asset. Financing the fleet allows to have interest gain
Second life Battery pack strategies (link to storage business model). The batteries of the vehicles can shift into a second life plan to re-market them at the end of the first lifecycle for storage and other utilisations.
Marketing. On purpose vehicles are a branding tool (as Moia just proved with their launch few days ago)
Commercial (promotion and re-marketing). Vehicles can generate more revenue once we move them into the re-marketing plan and second sales.
What shall we do during our trips in autonomous cars? Many operators are raising this questions and pay per use services (entertainment/business) to be developed for self driving cars seems to be a collateral area of interest. Whether we use our subscriptions (Netflix, Spotify and similar), I bet many services will be integrated directly in the cars.
If those are some of the assets to be leveraged in future mobility business, there is an complementarystrategy to address which seems to be the big umbrella where including the whole stack of innovation: MAAS: mobility as a service. Once the volume of ridesharing trips will really shift our cities mobility patterns we have to expect that large corporations will aggregate vertical players to create the biggest
platform to really go from A to B with one touch. Many are competing already around the world and capitalisations will drive the winning ones.
East regions (China, Malaysia, India) faces deregulated market where new mobility services (ride sharing/ride hailing) have established brands like DIDI (China) Grab (Malaysia) Careem (Middle east) OLA (india). Many of them have international growth plans or even to extend operations (Didi just announced 151M$ investment to enter the car sharing market).
West regions (USA/Canada). is the cradle of new mobility and player are competing at the forefront of innovation thanks to most famous brands Uber/Lyft, Waymo/Apple.
Europe: is an highly regulated market and new mobility struggles to become real in terms of volumes. Further than direct business development a potential strategy to fast the process in the early stage is to link with public transport operators or car manufacturers that are familiar with regulations and they are entering in the mobility arena. Business development is subject to local/national Government approval even if EU policies are expected within few years time to create the legal framework.
So there’s a lot to do and we can be sure that mobility, public transport industry and automotive will converge in a whole new competitive arena that we don’t know the boundaries yet.
Strategy, pillars and operations for autonomous driving fleet management business (part 1)
We are quite aware that future business model for carmakers is mobility oriented more than car focused. All brands are moving to become miles/km providers, much bigger market than struggling selling cars to dealers and customers.
Weekly news support this future.. but the focus of this post is more about the business side. How to make money in this new shaping industry?
The convergence of electric and autonomous technologies, public regulations, tradeoff between public/private business, integration of fleet management, long-term and short-term rentals are disrupting multiple traditional businesses and shaping a completely new competitive arena where different industries want to play the game.
We see car makers directly moving to mobility (brand like Moia, Maven, IMotion, Moovel, Lynk&co just to mention few ones) or huge public transports operators (Deutsche-Bahn, Transdev, Keolis) extending their offer to ride-sharing pilots, or big rental companies embracing sharing mobility (corporate or privately based) and don’t forget new players often heavily backed (Zoox) or leading forefront giants like Uber or Waymo.
Quite a crowded arena, specially if we consider that none of those players really own the whole stack of services that future business will require. Even more if we understand that final stage of this change will be the coming popular definition “Mobility as a Service” clearly described in this picture by Sampo Hietanen, pioneer entrepreneur running his Maas Global company.
Starting from here I outline some of the most important topics to be considered addressing this market based on assumptions that only few companies will have the resources (money, team, assets) to scale globally and we’ll probably see many providers acting locally followed by an increasing number of M&A.
Full mobility service business case is based on a tailored range of vehicles according to client’s preferences. Vehicles will feature new design (cars/van/minibus/light-freight) with multiple mobility targets. Vehicles will be initially electric and autonomous in a short timeline of period (local deployment according to regulations). In some regions it’s possible to include 2 wheels in the game.
Fleet Financing (leasing/rental) will be a core business because even if we think about the future.. we’ll still need someone to own and rent cars for mobility. At least until we’ll move in 3 dimensions instead of 2 and flying car will hit the road.. (actually the sky) of our cities.
Business operations: the business case includes a broad range of operations:
This provocative statement opens Citytech, the event gathering this week in Milan more than 800 international experts, key players and top brands showcasing some of the most relevant innovations in mobility aiming to shape tomorrow’s cities. It’s time to act and take strong decisions to lead the transition towards a more sustainable mobility system and urban environment.
If Government sets regulations, industry’s role targets technologies and manufacturing accordingly. After Volvo recently announced to produce only electric or hybrid cars in 2019, JLR just followed with a target date of 2020 and media are full of releases from IAA show in Frankfurt from BMW, Daimler and VW on huge investments to electrified the whole production in the near future.
We finally know that revolution today.. needs money more than arms, so what’s the opinion from financial community about E-mobility? JpMorgan just declared that electric technology will disrupt the market with many losers, all those ones that will not drive the change. (CNBC credit video) They forecast 35% market share for EV in 2025, scaling to 48% by 2030. More conservative position from MorganStanley’s comparing multiple scenarios expects 16% penetration for EV (fully electric) in 2030 that can reach up to 60% by 2040. Meantime Dutch bank ING identifies the battery costs reduction and public incentives as the main opportunities to drive production fully electric in 2035.
Market is full of researches we don’t want to get lost in, the fundamental is that global political, economic and financial community has complete knowledge about this changing. Now it’s up to management class (from politics, to industries and consumers, nationally and locally) to decide whether they want to lead the changes or get disrupted. Italy is far behind this trend as proven by the insignificant market share of Ev (0,03%) or the absence of commitment and specific policies, any autonomous driving initiative elsewhere in the country even if there are existing competences and technologies not only linked to the “old” motor industry. We don’t need discussions but facts, projects, trials, and investments. That will bring the country industry back to a primary role in the future of automotive…(oh no sorry I’am wrong, …in the future of mobility).
Carlo Iacovini Marketing Director, Local Motors, Board Member, Clickutility on Earth
Il processo di cambiamento in atto nel settore dell’automotive è così radicale che non tutti i grandi gruppi ne hanno piena consapevolezza. Da un lato nuovi player spingono per introdurre l’innovazione, cercando di dimostrare l’economicità e la profittabilità delle tecnologie, dall’altro anche i brand più tradizionalisti hanno avviato fasi di scouting tecnologico e indagini conoscitive. Tesla è sempre in prima linea tra i nuovi brand sulla scia dei successi di vendita della Model S/X e in preparazione dell’arrivo della Model3, primo modello più economico. L’azienda è al centro anche di speculazioni considerando che ha appena raccolto 1miliardo di $ e il gigante tecnologico Tencent ha rilevato il 5% del capitale di Tesla per 2,8mld di$. Un dinamismo di mercato che alimenta congetture sul fabbisogno di cassa dell’azienda in previsione del lancio di produzione della nuova media e la capacità di soddisfare la domanda di acquisto degli oltre 400.000 clienti che l’avevano prenotata. Il rischio è infatti di trovarsi a “metà del guado” con cassa limitata.. sarebbe la posizione più rischiosa per un’acquisizione (favorevole.. od ostile). A parte Tesla l’industria dei nuovi brand della Silicon Valley interamente votati a rivoluzionare la mobilità con veicoli connessi, autonomi e condivisi, fa i conti con la dura realtà. Faraday Future la più chiacchierata azienda americana (con capitali asiatici) è in grande difficoltà e dopo un lancio del loro primo veicolo (la FF91) in grande stile a Gennaio scorso a Las Vegas ha visto una drastica riduzione degli investimenti sulla fabbrica del Nevada (avviata per una piccola porzione rispetto ai piani generali), al quartier generale in California (venduto l’intero lotto di terra dove doveva sorgere una cittadella dell’innovazione), la dipartita di diversi executive da poco assunti (e l’ingresso di altri, come il nuovo CFO) e nessuna certezza sui tempi di produzione e commercializzazione del veicolo (che per la cronaca ha un prezzo stimato in quasi 170mila $). Next EV, altra multinazionale di pochi anni, dopo aver anticipato una vettura supersportiva da corsa con record sul giro realizzato al Nürburgring ha presentato EVE, il concetto per la nuova mobilità. Un veicolo che rappresenta un’emanazione diretta del proprio spazio di vita, come fosse un salotto o un ambiente dove le 4 ruote sono una componente quasi secondaria. Suggestioni.. certo, ma nemmeno troppo lontane nel tempo visto che anche Volkswagen a Ginevra ha presentato Sedric, un veicolo multifunzionale basato sulle stesse premesse concettuali. E per capire quanto le aziende guardino lontano basti pensare ad Airbus che insieme a Italdesign ha portato un prototipo di auto volante proprio nel salone svizzero…. leggi oltre
#CES2017 is the first show to look at to understand trends and new technologies. It’s true that Automotive uses the show to unveil prototypes and concepts often far away to market creating a sort of gap between future and reality. Referring to mobility industry the show has been a key place to talk about autonomous driving, connected cars and electric vehicles in recent years. This opening editions is showing both concrete products and services. The GONV summit gathered public institutions (mayor of Las Vegas,
State Governor) and private industries executives (LocalMotors, Lyft, Ehang, Hyperloop and many more) talking about new business cases and autonomous driving deployment.
The industry is clearly showing that this technology is coming to reality and to prove so a series of test drive locations have been set up for visitors. “Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is expected to put forth a highly autonomous driving demonstration in collaboration with its automobility partners. Microsoft is currently working on an autonomous driving project in partnership with NXP Semiconductors, IAV, Esri, Swiss Re, and Cubic Telecom” (cit). Similar approach comes from French industry representatives (Valeo,Keolys), as other relevant players like Nvidia (special Key note presentation), HERE (that just announced INTEL as new investor for the company) that will have big inside/outside locations to engage visitors to. High expectations comes from FCA that finally unveiled PORTAL the first fully electric car for millennians.. designed by millenians based on a new concept of family vehicle. It’s a prototype.. but seems that a market ready version will be ready in one year.
Even more rumours lead the Faraday Future unveiling. The official presentation of the first car comes after weeks of skeptics and executive leaving news providing the idea of a struggling company.. The level of presentation they just had proved that the company has strong commitment and even if financial problems are part of the challenge.. it doesn’t seem to be a close to end project. The car is quite innovative and sure will be one of the most interesting products to look after.
Ces2017 will open in the next days.. a lot to see and more to come, even from non exhibitors.. here comes that you can meet a #LucidMotors prototype next to parking spot for private presentation. Stay tuned.
Few hours after Trump’s elections the global “clean energy” business community started debating about potential debacle coming from a step back in green policies, some how announced by new US Government.
Automakers industry made the first step writing an official letter (see letter from AutomotiveNews ) to the “Transition team” asking to review and weak requirements for fuel consumption that is set to a fleet average of more than 50 MPG by 2025, declaring that “The combination of low gas prices and the existing fuel efficiency gains from the early years of the program is undercutting consumer willingness to buy the vehicles with more expensive alternative powertrains that are necessary for the sector to comply with the more stringent standards in out-years”, also arguing about single state regulations unbalancing consumers acceptance about alternative fuel specially considering California is at the forefront of this approach and other States are following. It’s good to remember that EV industry in California (and many more States) has 7.500$ purchase Tax credit (for the first 200.000 vehicles sold from each car manufacturer) and companies like Tesla still has a big revenue stream from selling EV tax credits certificates to other automakers.
More in general green policies seems to be in danger if we consider that President Trump denies global warming and seems positive towards oil and coal industries and believes that strict ecological regulations can slow economic growth… even if it’s not true according to recent statements.
It’s not clear whether the US government will erase Paris Cop21 agreement but there are few considerations about EV industry (and new mobility) to outline:
Electric vehicles and fuel economy regulations are necessary not only for environmental reasons: they are crucial to hold oil demand (and foreign oil import expenses). We can expect new administrations to keep these measures as today because they prove to reduce oil consumption.
New Government seems more interested in financing big infrastructures (roads, bridges, hopefully some public transport network too..) furthermore engaging car manufactures in creating new jobs and keep productions in US instead of foreign factories.. (Doesn’t matter if cars are internal combustion, electric or autonomous..). I guess State Governors will still deal and support new EV brands like FaradayFuture, NextEv, LEECO, creating thousands of new jobs in Nevada, California and more.
Most of all it is well known that Customers have the real power and even Trumps election confirms these statements if we bring this statement to politics. Well, consumers today more than in the past like the coming to market innovation in EV industry. After Tesla, all big automakers have highly committed plans to introduce new products and even new brands. This trend can’t be stopped by a public administration.. Maybe the Government can slow it down instead of accelerating but at the end the market goes there.
Considering that China and Europe will keep going in this directions US could be in disadvantage situation in the next decade if keep away from this trend.
A final political consideration comes from demographics distributions votes: Young people voted mainly for Hillary, following the most disruptive trends in EV, new mobility and innovation. Mr. Trump declares himself to be President of all Americans and those votes could be very helpful in the midterm election in 4 years time.. so it wouldn’t be so difficult to approach this electorate keeping the growing new and sharing mobility industry alive.
We’ll see in coming months real strategies and first nominations in crucial roles to learn more about what to expect on EV market. Stay tunes.