“Italian cities to ban cars* by 2030”

This provocative statement opens Citytech, the event gathering this week in Milan more than 800 international experts, key players and top brands showcasing some of the most relevant innovations in mobility aiming to shape tomorrow’s cities. It’s time to act and take strong decisions to lead the transition towards a more sustainable mobility system and urban environment.

citytech_logoPublic policies made a strong acceleration in the last few weeks. UK and France declared to ban ICE (petrol and diesel) cars from new sales by 2040, Norway, counting 40% new registrations in August as electric cars, sets this goal in 2024 as Netherlands did. Most of all China has declared to be working on the same regulation, just defining the right timeframe. (we remind that China equals to 28 millions units market). That’s a long way if we consider that we have 695.000 EV globally in 2016 in 84 million cars market.

If Government sets regulations, industry’s role targets technologies and manufacturing accordingly. After Volvo recently announced to produce only electric or hybrid cars in 2019, JLR just followed with a target date of 2020 and media are full jaguar_ipaceof releases from IAA show in Frankfurt from BMW, Daimler and VW on huge investments to electrified the whole production in the near future.

We finally know that revolution today.. needs money more than arms, so what’s the opinion from financial community about E-mobility? JpMorgan just declared that electric technology will disrupt the market with many losers, all those ones that will not drive the change. (CNBC credit video) They forecast 35% market share for EV in 2025, scaling to 48% by 2030. More conservative position from MorganStanley’s comparing multiple scenarios expects 16% penetration for EV (fully electric) in 2030 that can reach up to 60% by 2040. morganstanleyMeantime Dutch bank ING identifies the battery costs reduction and public incentives as the main opportunities to drive production fully electric in 2035.

Market is full of researches we don’t want to get lost in, the fundamental is that globalBMWIvision political, economic and financial community has complete knowledge about this changing. Now it’s up to management class (from politics, to industries and consumers, nationally and locally) to decide whether they want to lead the changes or get disrupted. Italy is far behind this trend as proven by the insignificant market share of Ev (0,03%) or the absence of commitment and specific policies, any autonomous driving initiative elsewhere in the country even if there are existing competences and technologies not only linked to the “old” motor industry. We don’t need discussions but facts, projects, trials, and investments. That will bring the country industry back to a primary role in the future of automotive…(oh no sorry I’am wrong, …in the future  of mobility).

*..combustion cars

Carlo Iacovini                                                                                                                 Marketing Director, Local Motors,                                                                                   Board Member, Clickutility on Earth

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Mobilità a guida autonoma: un’industria in movimento

Il processo di cambiamento in atto nel settore dell’automotive è così radicale che non tutti i grandi gruppi ne hanno piena consapevolezza. Da un lato nuovi player spingono per introdurre l’innovazione, cercando di dimostrare l’economicità e la profittabilità delle tecnologie, dall’altro anche i brand più tradizionalisti hanno avviato fasi di scouting tecnologico e indagini conoscitive. Tesla è sempre in prima linea tra i nuovi brand sulla scia dei successi di vendita della Model S/X e in preparazione dell’arrivo della Model3, primo modello più economico. L’azienda è al centro anche di speculazioni considerando che ha appena raccolto 1miliardo di $ e il gigante tecnologico Tencent ha rilevato il 5% del capitale di Tesla per 2,8mld di$. Un dinamismo di mercato che alimenta congetture sul fabbisogno di cassa dell’azienda in previsione del lancio di produzione della nuova media e la capacità di soddisfare la domanda di acquisto degli oltre 400.000 clienti che l’avevano prenotata. Il rischio è infatti di trovarsi a “metà del guado” con cassa limitata.. sarebbe la posizione più rischiosa per un’acquisizione (favorevole.. od ostile). A parte Tesla l’industria dei nuovi brand della Silicon Valley interamente votati a rivoluzionare la mobilità con veicoli connessi, autonomi e condivisi, fa i conti con la dura realtà. Faraday Future la più chiacchierata azienda americana (con capitali asiatici) è in grande difficoltà e dopo un lancio del loro primo veicolo (la FF91) in grande stile a Gennaio scorso a Las Vegas ha visto una drastica riduzione degli investimenti sulla fabbrica del Nevada (avviata per una piccola porzione rispetto ai piani generali), al quartier generale in California (venduto l’intero lotto di terra dove doveva sorgere una cittadella dell’innovazione), la dipartita di diversi executive da poco assunti (e l’ingresso di altri, come il nuovo CFO) e nessuna certezza sui tempi di produzione e commercializzazione del veicolo (che per la cronaca ha un prezzo stimato in quasi 170mila $). Next EV, altra multinazionale di pochi anni, dopo aver anticipato una vettura supersportiva da corsa con record sul giro realizzato al Nürburgring ha presentato EVE, il concetto per la nuova mobilità. Un veicolo che rappresenta un’emanazione diretta del proprio spazio di vita, come fosse un salotto o un ambiente dove le 4 ruote sono una componente quasi secondaria. Suggestioni.. certo, ma nemmeno troppo lontane nel tempo visto che anche Volkswagen a Ginevra ha presentato Sedric, un veicolo multifunzionale basato sulle stesse premesse concettuali. E per capire quanto le aziende guardino lontano basti pensare ad Airbus che insieme a Italdesign ha portato un prototipo di auto volante proprio nel salone svizzero…. leggi oltre

Articolo completo pubblicato su “Qualenergia” Aprile-Maggio 2017

 

What to expect from #CES2017 and mobility

#CES2017 is the first show to look at to understand trends and new technologies. It’s true that Automotive uses the show to unveil prototypes and concepts often far away to market creating a sort of gap between future and reality. Referring to mobility industry the show has been a key place to talk about autonomous driving, connected cars and electric vehicles in recent years. This opening editions is showing both concrete products and services. The GONV summit gathered public institutions (mayor of Las Vegas,

localmotors_mayor
Mayor of Las Vegas and LocalMotors CEO present OLLI self driving vehicle – credits: LocalMotors

State Governor) and private industries executives  (LocalMotors, Lyft, Ehang, Hyperloop and many more)  talking about new business cases and autonomous driving deployment.

The industry is clearly showing that this technology is coming to reality and to prove so a series of test drive locations have been set up for visitors. “Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is expected to put forth a highly autonomous driving demonstration in collaboration with its automobility partners. Microsoft is currently working on an autonomous driving project in partnership with NXP Semiconductors, IAV, Esri, Swiss Re, and Cubic Telecom” (cit). Similar approach comes from French industry representatives (Valeo,Keolys), as other relevant players like Nvidia (special Key note presentation), HERE (that just announced INTEL as new investor for the company) that will have big inside/outside locations to engage visitors to. High expectations comes from FCA that finally unveiled PORTAL the first fully electric fcaportalcar for millennians.. designed by millenians based on a new concept of family vehicle. It’s a prototype.. but seems that a market ready version will be ready in one year.

Even more rumours lead the Faraday Future unveiling. The official presentation of the first car comes after weeks of skeptics and executive leaving news providing the idea of a struggling company.. The level of presentation they just had proved that the company has strong commitment and even if financial problems are part of the challenge.. it doesn’t seem to be a close to end project. The car is quite innovative and sure will be one of the most interesting products to look after. img_8738

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ces2017 will open in the next days.. a lot to see and more to come, even from non exhibitors.. here comes that you can meet a #LucidMotors prototype next to parking spot for private presentation. Stay tuned.

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Behind Tesla Master Plan 2

Master Plan 2 description brings Tesla(Motors) in the next decade of investments and business models. It is interesting to look at what’s behind this announcement (…maybe)

Few months ago the Model 3 presentation astonished the world of passionates and customers with more than 400.000 reservations in few weeks. The presentation came after weeks of rumors about the suspected Model 3 delay… even if clients will get their cars not earlier than late 2017. I was wondering on how Tesla would have kept the attention to their business (and the stock price) for such a long time.

The masterplan 2 is the next step, only few days before the opening of the Gigafactory in Nevada, pushing the boarder much further than followers would expected. The plan covers new vehicles (Semitruck, transit, pickup) Solarcity (Tesla is buying the “sister” company) Sharing mobility, autonomous vehicle, and new manufacturing technology.. basically there is everything on the news in the energy, mobility&automotive industry in the world so far.

It is difficult not appreciating the plan because you can’t miss any innovation you are interested in. I am among the Tesla followers and I see the strategy behind as as a clever lesson. The masterplan is presented through a simple post (I guess there will be some Investor relations executives working on numbers too), anticipated by a series of signals (website domain change in tesla.com, mission moved from “transportation” to “energy”) and come after the fatality of the Autopilot that might have been accelerating the schedule of this presentation, linking the whole to a relevant financial decision (Solarcity investment to be approved by assembly).

model3

@Elonmusk made us used to fast communications keeping expectations increasing. But this time the boarders are much higher than before and we are not talking on building cars only… (even that would be enough to have some concerns about the plan) but creating a global company dealing with different industries connected by the great vision of its founder.

I am willing to see  how numbers, investments, business cases will be put together.  Surely there’s material for many future presentations.

Stay tuned!

Self-driving cars: when does marketing come?

#CES2016 proved (again) how autonomous cars can be ready to market much earlier than Governments and consumers are. Technology seems not to be a big issue (autonomous engineers might disagree about it), specially if we see how big car automakers are confident in showing their new products.

We all know about Tesla autopilot-mode, Volkswagen had a keynote speech about how the image2management is shaping a new company for electric, connected, smart and autonomous driving range of products. Mercedes just been licensed to drive autonomous E-Class in Nevada roads, FaradayFuture showed a great concept car, not a production one and not even really close to their real plan, which aims to deliver new models since 2017, with autonomous driving in their path.

Toyota showed long term concepts cars and Ford CEO talked much about new regulations required as the industry is ready. General Motors after investing $500mln in ridesharing boltcompany Lyft, just unveiled the new Bolt. Even those companies not exhibiting  at the CES made rumors about this coming future technology. Next-EV grows in San Josè R&D facility. The company team won the first ever world Formula-E championship last year and they think global with facilities in US, Europe, China. I can’t miss to mention Alphabet new tailored company Google Self Driving car further than Apple Car project that everyone knows about (.. but please don’t talk much as it’s a secret). I apologize if I don’t dive in describing Nissan pilot projects and Volvo existing self driving cars in Goteborg, but I only remind that the first ever self driving car fleet comes from Italian Parma University R&D company Vislab that drove (actually they didn’t) more than 13.000km from Milan to Shanghai in autonomous driving back in 2010.

Too many news… confirm that industry is almost ready, so what’s next? If we all believe that products will be enough to make the market, we’ll be terribly wrong. Further than that the overall car industry needs to point few more milestones to shape a new mobility business case:

Regulations. Detroit announce by US Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx about the 4B plan to set standard rules and promote self driving technology was the right think in the right moment (and at the right place, being at NAIAS show).

IMG_6115Market(ing). Are we really sure people will accept so easily such a disruptive new technology? Probably new generation does, Millennians  already prefer sharing mobility more than ownership, but there are more adults on the streets than young ones driving around. It took years to make people familiar in using an electric car.. and you are still driving them. I am highly passionate about new technology so I know industry has to be forward thinking through a new smart approach to self driving cars. Marketing strategies will soon become a key issue to success into this new business industry and certainly it’s a different game compared to sell cars. 

More comments to come, stay tuned.- Carlo

 

Viaggiare senza guidare, una visione per rivoluzionare la mobilità

Auto e bus senza pilota, investimenti milionari alla ricerca di sicurezza e confort di viaggio. Una panoramica globale di progetti, player e casi pratici per avvicinarci al futuro della mobilità.

Mai come negli ultimi mesi sono proliferati annunci, presentazioni e test sperimentali di automobili che viaggiano da sole. Per i nostalgici degli anni ’80 è il sogno di KITT che si kittrealizza (la celebre serie televisiva Supercar con David Hasselhoff). Per i più giovani è l’ultima app sviluppata da Google. In ogni caso l’industria (automobilistica e non solo) sembra essere dapprima affascinata dalla tecnologia “driverless”, quindi concretamente intenzionata a sviluppare vere linee di business dedicati all’autopilota. Continue reading “Viaggiare senza guidare, una visione per rivoluzionare la mobilità”