Electric Vehicles industry shouldn’t fear (too much) Trump Presidency: that’s why

Few hours after Trump’s elections the global “clean energy” business community started debating about potential debacle coming from a step back in green policies, some how announced by new US Government.

autoallianceAutomakers industry made the first step writing an official letter (see letter from AutomotiveNews ) to the “Transition team” asking to review and weak requirements for fuel consumption that is set to a fleet average of more than 50 MPG by 2025, declaring that “The combination of low gas prices and the existing fuel efficiency gains from the early years of the program is undercutting consumer willingness to buy the vehicles with more expensive alternative powertrains that are necessary for the sector to comply with the more stringent standards in out-years”, also arguing about single state regulations unbalancing consumers acceptance about alternative fuel specially considering California is at the forefront of this approach and other States are following. It’s good to remember that EV industry in California (and many more States) has 7.500$ purchase Tax credit (for the first 200.000 vehicles sold from each car manufacturer) and companies like Tesla still has a big revenue stream from selling EV tax credits certificates to other automakers.

More in general green policies seems to be in danger if we consider that President Trump denies global warming and seems positive towards oil and coal industries and believes louisiana-mineral-rights-oil-gas-royaty-buyers-248x182that strict ecological regulations can slow economic growth… even if it’s not true according to recent statements.

It’s not clear whether the US government will erase Paris Cop21 agreement but there are few considerations about EV industry (and new mobility) to outline:

  • Electric vehicles and fuel economy regulations are necessary not only for environmental reasons: they are crucial to hold oil demand (and foreign oil import expenses). We can expect new administrations to keep these measures as today because they prove to reduce oil consumption.
  • New Government seems more interested in financing big infrastructures (roads, bridges, hopefully some public transport network too..) furthermore engaging car manufactures in creating new jobs and keep productions in US instead of foreign factories.. (Doesn’t matter if cars are internal combustion, electric or autonomous..). I guess State Governors will still deal and support new EV brands like FaradayFuture, IMG_6115NextEv, LEECO, creating thousands of new jobs in Nevada, California and more.
  • Most of all it is well known that Customers have the real power and even Trumps election confirms these statements if we bring this statement to politics. Well, consumers today more than in the past like the coming to market innovation in EV industry. After Tesla, all big automakers have highly committed plans to introduce new products and even new brands. This trend can’t be stopped by a public administration.. Maybe the Government can slow it down instead of accelerating but at the end the market goes there.
  • Considering that China and Europe will keep going in this directions US could be in disadvantage situation in the next decade if keep away from this trend.
  • A final political consideration comes from demographics distributions votes: Young people voted mainly for Hillary, following the most disruptive trends in EV, new mobility and innovation. Mr. Trump declares himself to be  President of all Americans and those votes could be very helpful in the midterm election in 4 years time.. so it wouldn’t be so difficult to approach this electorate keeping the growing new and sharing mobility industry alive.

We’ll see in coming months real strategies and first nominations in crucial roles to learn more about what to expect on EV market. Stay tunes.

 @CarloIacovini

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